ACTIONIZING UNCERTAINTY
- gvanpatter
- Jul 18
- 8 min read
Welcome back Humantific Journal readers!
With the global economy in such an uncertain state, we thought this might be a good moment to share in this “Turning the Tide” series, a few basic forward motion observations, to clarify that multiple changemaking and capacity building options do exist in these bumpy times.
Since our founding in 2005 we have seen numerous economic cycles come and go. Often with each turn there is a shift of marketplace interest in approach modes as described below; Future Casting and Strategic Intervention.
*These basic approach modes consist of either jumping to an imagined TOMORROW and then working backwards to TODAY or alternatively jumping off from TODAY building towards TOMORROW. Each has its ideal contexts.
Over the years we have engaged with client organizations in both approach modes, each always evolving. Much depends on what organizational leaders see as the priority at any given time, both short and longer term.
Fundamentally leaders ask themselves whether this is a moment to expend resources creating a new vision, a new “system”, a new organization, a new future model or is it a moment to engage in systemic thinking regarding how best to evolve/transform what currently exists. Many factors typically play into that consideration. Organizational leaders reflect on how well or how poorly their organization is proactiving adapting to continuous external change, and or participating in the invention of the future. Timing-wise; Future Casting tends to be occasional and Strategic Intervention continuous.
In a literature sense, to quote pioneers Sidney Parnes in 1967 and Russ Ackoff in 1974, some approaches are looking at and acknowledging “messes” [Strategic Intervention], some are envisioning clean slates [Future Casting]. In one way or another, both end up grappling with current conditions.
Right now in 2025, with volatility prevalent and massive change underway in many industries we are seeing a downswing in speculative Future Casting and rising interest in working with the complexities of existing organizations with Strategic Intervention. If the global economic volatility steadies this may change later in the year.
HUMANTIFIC APPROACH MODES
Since we wrote a practice-based, sensemaking book on the history of innovation methodologies [Innovation Methods Mapping] and a book on Rethinking Design Thinking we have rather deep practical knowledge regarding the role of visualized process in cross-disciplinary innovation. That importance cannot likely be overstated, not as a script to follow but rather as a helpful compass.
Complexity and nonlinearity go hand-in-hand but that does not mean that you have to reinvent every aspect of innovation process everyday. We already know that makes no business sense at all. We love "emergence" and understand that outcomes can be 100% emergent while process need not be. Codified and adaptive innovation process knowledge can be extremely helpful in accelerating whatever form of changemaking you seek to engage.
Regardless of which mode is undertaken there is no question that the adoption of Ai is having a noteworthy impact. Conducting on-going experiments with Ai possibilities is a good place to be. Being extremely good at generating toothbrush design options in Arena 2, it is less clear exactly what roles Ai can effectively play in Arena 3 and Arena 4 changemaking work. Often this type of work is highly confidential. Whether everyone likes it or not, Ai has become part of the complexities present in the mix of Arena 3 and Arena 4 work. The plane is in flight while it's still being built. Our particular interest at Humantific is in the impact of Ai on the two modes of Future Casting and Strategic Intervention from a process perspective.
ACCELERATED FUTURE CASTING
With the advantage of having advanced Visual SenseMaking capacity on-board what we do at Humantific is a form of Accelerated Future Casting. Secret hand-shake revelation: Fundamentally we understand that the Complexity Navigation Compass is not the journey. In addition, since we have been swimming in cocreation waters for an extended period we don’t expect every person participating to begin their journey from scratch. This is especially true if the plan is to roll out the participation experience to many.
In academic settings, repeatedly taking the start-from-scratch long route might be feasible but often in business settings there is a need to think differently regarding how rethought approaches can help us scale and accelerate.
STARTING POINT:
In Accelerated Future Casting we begin in a vision of the future and then cycle back to the existing organization to determine what fits, what needs to be altered and what needs to be left behind.
DRIVERS:
Numerous versions of VUCA now exist to explain the various external forces driving need for change in many industries and organizations: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity.
We work with change-driving leaders to customize their need-for-change story.
APPROACH APPLICABLE TO:
Arena 3: Organizational ChangeMaking
Arena 4: Societal ChangeMaking
We often use the NextD Geographies Framework, created by Humantific to engage in this part of the conversation.
KEY METHODOLOGY DYNAMIC:
Taking the opportunity to set aside, leave behind the constraints of the existing system.
KEY ELEMENTS:
Visual SenseMaking
Strategic Cocreation
Future Fit Assessment
Intervention Assessment
Open Systemic Challenge Framing
Rebalancing Innovation Power Dynamics / Psychological Safety
Orchestration of Ai
Deliberate Inclusion / Maximizing Brainpower
Connects strategy, innovation defined, process, cognition, behaviors, culture
KEY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
Rising complexity of challenges and systems
Upstream from briefs in orientation
Assumption-free methods
Human-centered / Life-centered in orientation
Distinguish between content knowledge and process knowledge
Need for content and process knowledge present
Guide on the side / not hero sage on the stage
Orchestration/facilitation rises as challenges scale in complexity
Codified process knowledge accelerates cocreation
Innovation Harmonics connects strategy, innovation redefined, technology, process, cognition, behaviors, culture
FUTURE VISION SOURCES:
Situationally cocreated future vision
Leadership generated vision
Institute of the Future / research vision
Ai generated future vision
Visual SenseMaking makes the future visions come alive
TOOLBOX/METHODOLOGY:
Hybrid Think Blending / Mixed Methods
Combination In Action: Design Thinking, Applied Creativity Thinking, Systems Thinking, Open Innovation Thinking, Complex Creative Problem Solving Thinking, Visual SenseMaking Thinking, Design Research Thinking, Complex Facilitation Thinking, Systemic Framing Thinking, Power Balance Thinking, Organizational Development Thinking, Ambidexterity Thinking, Innovation Behaviors Thinking, Innovation Acceleration Thinking, Design Doing, Inclusive Culture Construction Thinking, Inclusion Leadership Thinking, Complexity Navigation Thinking
Integration/orchestration of AI where appropriate
HUMANTIFIC SECRET SAUCE:
Hybrid Think Blending / Visual SenseMaking / Advanced Innovation Process Mastery / Maximizing Brainpower
TIMING:
Tends to be occasional
SKILLBUILDING:
Humantific Complexity Navigation Program
ACCELERATED STRATEGIC INTERVENTION
We also make use of advanced Visual SenseMaking in all forms of Accelerated Strategic Intervention. [This is not “graphic recording”] Again we understand that the Complexity Navigation process compass is not the journey. The participant journeys are non linear, circling back and forth as the work progresses. Today the creation of cognitively inclusive information fields directly related to the focus of the work is accelerated with the aid of Ai.
STARTING POINT:
In Accelerated Strategic Intervention we begin by unpacking the realities of the current situation/organization/system and cascade forward into future evolutions. We get some help from a thoughtfully created information field.
DRIVERS:
As described above, numerous versions of VUCA now exist to explain the various external forces driving need for change.
APPROACH APPLICABLE TO:
Arena 3: Organizational Changemaking
Arena 4: Societal ChangeMaking
KEY METHODOLOGY DYNAMIC:
We don’t make any assumptions regarding knowing what the challenges / opportunities are before we begin.
KEY ELEMENTS:
Visual SenseMaking
Strategic Cocreation
Problem/Opportunity Finding
Problem/Opportunity Acknowledgement
Ethnographic Research / Insight Creation
Open Systemic Challenge Framing
Rebalancing Innovation Power Dynamics / Psychological Safety
Orchestration of Ai
Deliberate Inclusion / Maximizing Brainpower
Innovation Harmonics connects strategy, innovation defined, technology, process, cognition, behaviors, culture
KEY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
Rising complexity of challenges and systems
Upstream from briefs in orientation
Assumption-free methods
Human-centered / Life-centered in orientation
Distinguish between content knowledge and process knowledge
Need for content and process knowledge present
Guide on the side / not hero sage on the stage
Orchestration/facilitation rises as challenges scale in complexity
Codified process knowledge can accelerate cocreation
VUCA DYNAMICS SOURCES:
A vast array of formal and informal sources are publicly available depending on the industry and or community context. Ai can help accelerate the assembly of this VUCA material.
Visual SenseMaking makes the current ecology and context come alive. Constructing Universe Diagrams depicting the agreed up complete picture of the problematic/opportunistic context is just one of many diagrams that are typically created.
There might be systems within systems in such diagrams. All depends on the context and focus.
TOOLBOX/METHODOLOGY
Hybrid Think Blending/ Mixed Methods
Combination In Action: Design Thinking, Applied Creativity Thinking, Systems Thinking, Open Innovation Thinking, Complex Creative Problem Solving Thinking, Visual SenseMaking Thinking, Design Research Thinking, Complex Facilitation Thinking, Systemic Framing Thinking, Power Balance Thinking, Organizational Development Thinking, Ambidexterity Thinking, Innovation Behaviors Thinking, Innovation Acceleration Thinking, Design Doing, Inclusive Culture Construction Thinking, Inclusion Leadership Thinking, Complexity Navigation Thinking
Integration/orchestration of AI where appropriate
HUMANTIFIC SECRET SAUCE:
Hybrid Think Blending / Visual SenseMaking / Advanced Innovation Process Mastery / Maximizing Brainpower
TIMING:
Tends to be continuous
SKILLBUILDING
While numerous overlaps between the two modes exist, each represents a different kind of changemaking capacity so it’s worth reflecting on in terms of investment. Both capacities add significant fire-power to any organizations adaptive capacity and thus are extremely valuable to have on-board.
*NO SHORTAGE OF TERMS
Of course, many of our Humantific Journal readers will know that while there is no shortage of terms for approaches seen in the marketplace today, most map to either Future Casting or Strategic Intervention, a few map to both. Active Arena 3 and Arena 4 terms include; Backcasting, Speculative Design, Open Frame Design, Strategic Design, Transition Design, Transformation Design, Systemic Design, Systems Change, Systems Design, Complexity Navigation with numerous variations of some approaches in existence.
Some approaches begin with assumptions that the mess is known upfront. Others do not.
Some are adaptive to systems and fuzzy situations. Some are focused on one or the other.
Some are high in theory. Some are high in practicalities.
Some engage with plain language use. Some do not.
Some are human-centered. Others less so.
Some contain behavioral orchestration. Some do not.
Some privilege convergent thinking (decision-making). Some do not.
Some include systemic challenge framing. Some do not.
Some place great emphasis on discussing “boundaries”. Some do not.
Some tilt towards kumbaya. Some are more strategic.
Some have visual sensemaking fully integrated. Some do not.
Some embrace the [hero] stage-on-the-stage model. Others embrace guide-on-the-side. Some contain both.
Some are based in academia, some in practice.
Some align with Ambidextrous strategic ambitions. Some do not.
Some connect to psychological safety creation. Some do not.
Some scale to inclusive culture building. Some do not.
Today most approaches contain some form of Think Blending with various 2 to 10+ combinations of ingredients translating into very different approaches. Which ingredients are driving the train is key. Numerous options now exist, some more codified, coherent and clear than others.
If you are an organizational leader facing waves of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and would like to have a conversation on this topic send us an email.
Happy to engage.
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